If you believe that,— a) a civilization like ours is likely to survive into technological incredibleness, and b) a technologically incredible civilization is very likely to create ‘ancestor simulations’, —then the Simulation Argument says you should expect that you are currently in such an ancestor simulation, rather than in the genuine historical civilization that later gives rise to an abundance of future people.
I don't think this argument quite works? Like, suppose each base civilization simulates 100,000 civilizations. 100 are confused and think the're base civilizations, and the rest are non-confused and know they're simulations being run by a base civilization. In this world, most civilizations are right about their status, but most civilizations who think they're base civilizations are wrong.
Slightly off-topic but another assumption I think is built into the simulation argument without enough examination is that simulated beings would be conscious. I don’t think we know enough about how consciousness works to say for sure that digital ‘people’ would actually be conscious. If digital people AREN’T conscious then it doesn’t matter how many ancestor simulations they run in the future: we could notice that we’re conscious so we can’t be simulations. I tend to think that digital people CAN indeed be conscious so this isn’t a strong objection per se, but it’s definitely a consideration that I don’t see mentioned in many discussions of the simulation argument, despite it being a pretty foundational thing.
The reason we're more likely to be simulated than not, confusion and all, is because we're literally "that time a bunch of tarted-up apes with electric sand accidentally created a god."
I don't think this argument quite works? Like, suppose each base civilization simulates 100,000 civilizations. 100 are confused and think the're base civilizations, and the rest are non-confused and know they're simulations being run by a base civilization. In this world, most civilizations are right about their status, but most civilizations who think they're base civilizations are wrong.
Slightly off-topic but another assumption I think is built into the simulation argument without enough examination is that simulated beings would be conscious. I don’t think we know enough about how consciousness works to say for sure that digital ‘people’ would actually be conscious. If digital people AREN’T conscious then it doesn’t matter how many ancestor simulations they run in the future: we could notice that we’re conscious so we can’t be simulations. I tend to think that digital people CAN indeed be conscious so this isn’t a strong objection per se, but it’s definitely a consideration that I don’t see mentioned in many discussions of the simulation argument, despite it being a pretty foundational thing.
The reason we're more likely to be simulated than not, confusion and all, is because we're literally "that time a bunch of tarted-up apes with electric sand accidentally created a god."