I'm pretty sure the following would count as non-own behavior (a subset of above list, excluding several where I don't know which way i counted them e.g. my weight or things that depend on my own choices and others'.):
I will be invited to play ONUW today: 0.45 (true)
The trial bank transfers come through to my IBKR account by the end of Monday: 0.34 (false)
[Friend] will seem notably sad in demeanor when I talk to [them]: 0.6 (false)
I will be paid by end Jan 27: 0.85 (true)
If I go inside shortly I see [friend]: 0.08 (false)
I will get my period on Tuesday: 0.10 (true)
We will be invited to work at [office] for at least a week: 0.75 (false)
[Person] is leading a new EAish org or CEO or COO of an existing EAish org by May 30 2023, where EAish includes orgs not culturally EA but doing things that are considered so by a decent fraction of EAs: 0.62 (TBD)
If I ask [attendee] ‘what did you think of [event I ran]?’, [they] will be strongly positive: 0.8 (false)
If I offer [person] a trial [they] will take it: 0.65 (true)
If I look at [friend]’s most recent Tweet, it is linking to [their] blog: 0.8 (false)
Lunch includes no kind of fish meat: 0.43 (true)
The good graph i think also includes a few own behavior, just not the bulk of them. (There were a lot because I used to have weekly goals in the form of predictions.)
Looking at the things you’re predicting, I was a little surprised at how most of them seem to be about simply navigating day to day life rather than say, global events or scientific progress or similar things. In that context, being this well-calibrated isn’t that surprising. It just means that you generally have your shit together, have successfully mapped and learned about your local environment, and have a respectable degree of empathy and understanding of your friends. I expect most people would perform similarly.
What are some typical examples of non-own behaviour?
I'm pretty sure the following would count as non-own behavior (a subset of above list, excluding several where I don't know which way i counted them e.g. my weight or things that depend on my own choices and others'.):
I will be invited to play ONUW today: 0.45 (true)
The trial bank transfers come through to my IBKR account by the end of Monday: 0.34 (false)
[Friend] will seem notably sad in demeanor when I talk to [them]: 0.6 (false)
I will be paid by end Jan 27: 0.85 (true)
If I go inside shortly I see [friend]: 0.08 (false)
I will get my period on Tuesday: 0.10 (true)
We will be invited to work at [office] for at least a week: 0.75 (false)
[Person] is leading a new EAish org or CEO or COO of an existing EAish org by May 30 2023, where EAish includes orgs not culturally EA but doing things that are considered so by a decent fraction of EAs: 0.62 (TBD)
If I ask [attendee] ‘what did you think of [event I ran]?’, [they] will be strongly positive: 0.8 (false)
If I offer [person] a trial [they] will take it: 0.65 (true)
If I look at [friend]’s most recent Tweet, it is linking to [their] blog: 0.8 (false)
Lunch includes no kind of fish meat: 0.43 (true)
The good graph i think also includes a few own behavior, just not the bulk of them. (There were a lot because I used to have weekly goals in the form of predictions.)
Looking at the things you’re predicting, I was a little surprised at how most of them seem to be about simply navigating day to day life rather than say, global events or scientific progress or similar things. In that context, being this well-calibrated isn’t that surprising. It just means that you generally have your shit together, have successfully mapped and learned about your local environment, and have a respectable degree of empathy and understanding of your friends. I expect most people would perform similarly.