Most AI researchers put at least 5% on advanced AI causing human extinction or extreme disempowerment.
10% is not the probable extinction rate. It the actual chance humanity has of not becoming irrelevant. We do not have to be extinct to wish we were.
Traders, pricing bankruptcy risk, have skin in the game in ways that most all AI researchers giving p(doom) estimates do not.
https://www.betonit.ai/p/another-end-of-the-world-bet
Humanity hasn't responded appropriately to real, but long-term, risks like climate change or pandemics. There's zero chance of coordinating a response to a purely speculative scifi risk like, "super intelligent AI intends to kill everyone"
10% is not the probable extinction rate. It the actual chance humanity has of not becoming irrelevant. We do not have to be extinct to wish we were.
Traders, pricing bankruptcy risk, have skin in the game in ways that most all AI researchers giving p(doom) estimates do not.
https://www.betonit.ai/p/another-end-of-the-world-bet
Humanity hasn't responded appropriately to real, but long-term, risks like climate change or pandemics. There's zero chance of coordinating a response to a purely speculative scifi risk like, "super intelligent AI intends to kill everyone"